Scientists Warn of Potential Asteroid Collision in 2032
The International Astronomical Union has reported a 1.2% chance that asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring between 40 and 100 metres, could collide with Earth. The asteroid has been classified at level 3 on the Torino scale, indicating a potential but uncertain threat.
Astronomers first detected asteroid 2024 YR4 in December 2024 using the ATLAS early warning system, with observations recorded in Hawaii, Chile, and South Africa. The 1.2% probability of impact makes it the only known asteroid with a non-zero risk level on the Torino scale.
| Asteroid Data | Details |
|---|---|
| Name | 2024 YR4 |
| Diameter | 40–100 metres (NASA estimates 55m) |
| Hazard Level | 3 on the Torino Scale |
| Impact Probability | 1.2% |
| Potential Energy Release | 8 megatons of TNT |
Scientists emphasise that the asteroid’s trajectory may change due to the limited observation period. A similar situation occurred with asteroid Apophis, initially assessed with a 2.7% chance of impact and a Torino scale rating of 4, but later found to pose no significant threat.
If asteroid 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, the explosion would be comparable to the Tunguska meteorite, which devastated over 2,000 square kilometres of Siberia in 1908. However, given the advance warning, scientists believe there would be ample time to prepare evacuation measures or even launch a deflection mission, similar to NASA’s DART project, to alter its trajectory.
In a related event, asteroid 2020 BC6, classified as “potentially dangerous,” passed near Earth on 5 January 2025 without incident.
