KAMPALA – Uganda’s investment prospects are strengthening as improving macroeconomic stability, rising foreign exchange reserves, strong coffee exports and anticipated oil production create new opportunities for local and international investors.
Economist Stella Otieno said Uganda had sustained economic growth of more than six per cent over the past three financial years, while inflation remained within the Central Bank’s target range.
Otieno made the remarks during an Equity Bank Uganda trade and investment webinar held ahead of the bank’s third Trade Mission in Uganda, scheduled for September 13–16 in Kampala.
She said sustained economic growth, relatively stable inflation, predictable monetary policy and stronger foreign exchange reserves were creating a more favourable environment for investors.
“Growth has been above six per cent for the previous three years. Inflation has been stable and under four per cent within the target, and we also have stable policy rates,” Otieno said.
The Trade Mission is expected to bring together global, regional and local investors to explore investment opportunities, build partnerships and identify areas of collaboration with Ugandan businesses.
This year’s mission will focus on key sectors including agriculture, particularly coffee, extractives, manufacturing, services and tourism.
Otieno said real GDP growth for the 2025/26 financial year stood at about six per cent, while inflation was recorded at four per cent in July, below the medium-term target of five per cent.
She noted that the Central Bank Rate had remained at 9.75 per cent since October 2024, providing greater predictability for businesses and investors making long-term decisions.
Uganda’s foreign exchange reserves have also strengthened significantly, increasing from about US$3.3 billion in January 2025 to US$6.7 billion by June 2026.
According to Otieno, the stronger reserve position, together with relative exchange-rate stability, provides an important cushion against currency and external-sector risks.
“The macroeconomic environment is favourable,” she said, adding that Uganda’s current economic challenges should be viewed against the backdrop of an economy preparing for a major transformation, partly driven by the expected start of oil production.
Commercial oil production is expected to become a major catalyst for economic growth. Otieno projected that growth could accelerate to between eight and 10 per cent in the 2026/27 financial year as oil production begins, potentially pushing Uganda into double-digit economic growth.
Oil revenues are also expected to strengthen Uganda’s fiscal and external positions.
However, Otieno cautioned that Uganda’s fiscal deficit stood at an estimated 7.1 per cent at the end of the 2025/26 financial year, making fiscal management and public debt important areas for investors to monitor.
She said the anticipated flow of oil revenues could help strengthen the country’s fiscal position from the 2026/27 financial year.
Uganda’s current account deficit, estimated at 6.5 per cent of GDP, was described as manageable, with much of the pressure attributed to private-sector imports linked to oil and infrastructure investments.
Increased export earnings from oil are expected to help narrow the deficit once production begins.
Beyond oil, agriculture remains central to Uganda’s investment proposition, with coffee emerging as one of the country’s most significant export opportunities.
Otieno said coffee and gold were among Uganda’s largest sources of foreign exchange earnings, while the country became Africa’s largest coffee exporter in 2025.
Coffee export earnings reached US$2.2 billion in the 12 months to June 2026, highlighting opportunities across the entire value chain, including production, processing, logistics and export.
For investors, the opportunity extends beyond exporting raw commodities to include value addition, agro-processing and industrial production.
For Equity Bank, Uganda’s investment proposition goes beyond headline economic statistics.
Catherine Psomgen, Director of Public Sector and Social Investments at Equity Bank, said investors require more than promising economic indicators to establish and grow successful businesses.
She said investors need reliable information, supportive policies, access to finance, credible local partners and financial institutions that understand their ambitions.
“At Equity Bank, we see our role as extending beyond traditional banking,” Psomgen said.
She said the bank seeks to operate as a financial and business-enablement partner by connecting investors to finance, markets, information, technology and strategic relationships.
With Equity Group operating in several African markets, Psomgen said the bank was well positioned to support businesses entering Uganda, both in accessing the domestic market and using the country as a gateway to the wider East and Central African region.
Rita Nabateregga, Deputy Director for Investment Promotion at the Uganda Investment Authority, said Uganda was entering an important phase of industrialisation, with the government seeking to leverage the country’s natural resources to create jobs and promote local value addition.
She said Uganda’s agricultural and mineral resources presented significant investment opportunities as the country seeks to move away from exporting raw materials towards greater processing and industrial production.
The investment case is therefore increasingly shifting from simply identifying Uganda’s natural resources to building competitive businesses around them.
Investment opportunities span agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, logistics, energy, minerals, infrastructure, tourism, services and technology.
However, the bigger challenge will be ensuring that increased investment translates into productive enterprises, sustainable jobs, local value addition and broader economic transformation.
For Equity Bank, the message from the webinar was clear: Uganda’s growth story is moving beyond economic projections. The next phase will depend on how effectively capital, technology, expertise and partnerships are deployed to transform the country’s resources and expanding market into sustainable businesses and lasting economic opportunities.
